Ed Yardeni
Ed Yardeni is the president of Yardeni Research and a former chief investment strategist at Deutsche Bank and Prudential. He's known for the "Fed model" and for his "Roaring 2020s" thesis.
This post summarizes his talking points.
We're Back to Normal Rates, Says Ed Yardeni (October 14, 2026)
We are 7 years into the roaring 2020s and we're looking good:
- real GDP at an all-time high
- stock market at an all-time high
It's amazing how well the economy has performed despite all the shocks it's had to absorb.
Interest rates are back to normal. The abnormal rates were between the Great Financial Crisis and the Great Virus Crisis.
One guidepost for assessing bond yields is the growth rate of nominal GDP. Nominal GDP growth is 6.3%. Bond yields are 5.2%.
The bond vigilantes are not sightseeing in France.
The bond market in China has historically low yields. They have deflation. Home prices are still falling.
We are in the Roaring 2020s with a technology-led boom.
If inflation moderates, we will have even more real growth.
He thinks that productivity, which is currently growing at 2%, will grow to 3-4%.
This productivity boom has more going for it than previous ones.
A lot of people focus on the headlines, which are overly focused on Washington: the Fed and the Treasury.
The US economy does amazingly despite Washington.
It's also amazing how well the US economy, global economy, and stock markets have done despite the latest spike in oil prices.
There are certainly speculative excesses in the current AI market. But the banks aren't involved in the excesses like they were in the GFC. If something blows up in AI, then the AI community will rush to shore up the problem.